BBC Monitoring Europe - Political - November 25, 2005 Friday

Text of report by "I.A." entitled "Talks on [Kosovo] status, as initial spark" published by the Serbian newspaper Danas on 23 November

Belgrade: The beginning of talks on the final status of Kosmet [Kosovo and Metohija] is most likely to create new security problems in Serbia and most likely also a new wave of violence by Albanian extremists against the Serb population, Zoran Dragisic, a Faculty of Civil Defence professor and the executive-director of the newly founded Centre for Studying of Terrorism, said yesterday.

Dragisic said that it had been shown more than once up to now that in response to the beginning of every negotiations, the militant Albanians in Kosmet step up the terrorist attacks and that, therefore, no different scenario should be expected this time. Addressing a news conference, Dragisic said that a great deal would depend also on the final outcome of the talks between Belgrade and Pristina and that, if the talks ended in a way that the Albanian side did not like, problems far more serious than terrorism could be expected in Serbia.

"The Albanian terrorist organizations that are now topical in Kosovo and Metohija are nothing other than the OVK [Kosovo Liberation Army - UCK in Albanian], whose individual parts have only changed their name. The same people with the same demands are involved. More serious problems should also be expected in southern Serbia, because the so-called Army for Independence of Kosovo recently said that the talks on the final status of Kosmet should also cover the three predominantly Muslim [populated] municipalities in southern Serbia," Dragisic emphasized.

Goran Radosavljevic "Guri," an ex-commander of the Gendarmerie and the incumbent head of the Centre for Studying of Terrorism, has said that it may soon be the case that the Albanians in Kosmet start slowly withdrawing from the multi-ethnic police in order to leave only Serbs in it. Radosavljevic said that a great security challenge in southern Serbia was also the fact that Riza Halimi would be replaced as Presevo municipality chief by the far more radical Ragmi Mustafa.

The three-day international meeting "The Balkans as Terrorists' Western Gate and New Anti-Terrorism Technologies" will be opened by Serbian President Boris Tadic at the Majestic Hotel [in Belgrade] the day after tomorrow [ 25 November].

Source: Danas daily, Belgrade, in Serbian 23 Nov 05

AXIS INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS
Can Karpat, AIA Turkish section

26.11.2005

Kosovo Forces sectors

International community starts shuttle diplomacy in order to resolve the acute problem of Kosovo. Whatever the final status of Kosovo may be, one thing is obvious: the Kosovo problem represents a turning point in the Balkans, which would either lead to the long yearned peace and stability, or sow the seed of a new chaos in the region. That is why this is a great challenge for all of powers involved in the negotiation process that have just begun.

Is the independence more probable than any other option?

Although Kosovo is administratively submitted to the United Nations, it is still judicially dependent on Serbia-Montenegro. Therefore, it is no wonder that Belgrade and Kosovan Serbians found their thesis upon this juridical fact, and claim for the dependency of Kosovo on Serbia-Montenegro as autonomous region. However, one can consider this thesis either out of date for it mainly refers to the related article in the Constitution of the Yugoslavian State, which no longer exists, or unbending, for it is after all the very reason of the Kosovo problem.

As a matter of fact, when in 1989 Milosevic had the autonomous status of Kosovo suppressed in order to establish a more centralist administration within Yugoslavia Federation, the Albanians reposted with "civil disobedience" to Serbian authorities in Kosovo. Thus Kosovo was directly involved in the Yugoslavian civil war that started in 1990. In 1991, the Albanians under the leadership of Ibrahim Rugova boycotted the elections organised by the Serbian administration, and arranged their own elections.

Same year, in the referendum 99% of the Kosovans voted for the independence of Kosovo. Thereafter, at the risk of losing the international sympathy for their cause, the Albanians of Kosovo abandoned the tactic of civil disobedience to opt the armed resistance instead. With the establishment of the Kosovan Liberation Army (UCK), the "spirit of revolutionary committee"

of the 19th century, which had once ended the Ottoman reign in the Balkans, was resuscitated in the 1990s, this time against Belgrade administration.

Nevertheless, although Belgrade did not give up the autonomy option, it rather enlarged the content of that autonomy. It may be that the Serbians saw that time passes by in favour of the Albanians, and that the UN Mission in Kosovo, which currently holds Kosovo under its guardianship, is inclined more to the independence of the region than to its dependency on Serbia-Montenegro. Consequently, the Serbian thesis was "softened", and now it proposes a status that is "more than an autonomy, and less than an independence". According to this up-dated thesis, Kosovo will have a full executive, legislative and judicial authority, and it will also have its own administrative institutions in order to maintain order within Kosovo. In return, Serbia will get hold of the State sovereignty over Kosovo. That means that Serbia will control frontiers, customs, and monetary policies of Kosovo. Moreover, Serbia and Kosovo will have the common Ministers of Defence and of Foreign Affairs; they will share the same chair in the UN.

Nevertheless, what Belgrade sees as a concession, the Albanians of Kosovo see as an unacceptable thing.

The Serbian thesis, though up-dated, seems all the more unrealistic as Serbia has no forces at all in Kosovo since 1999, when the NATO operation took start. Serbian strategy consists of holding the bargains margins large in order to obtain as much as possible from the Kosovan territories in the future. As a matter of fact, some Serbian milieus, which saw that neither the UN, nor the USA would accept the official Serbian thesis, try to bring some alternative propositions to the negotiations table. Nevertheless, their recent proposition to divide Kosovo between the two ethnicities according to the proportion of their populations was definitely rejected both by the Albanian and the Serbian nationalists. The former Serbian Prime Minister, Zoran Cincic, who proposed the division of Kosovo between the two ethnicities like in Bosnia, was assassinated on the 12th of March, 2003.

As to the Albanian thesis, a much more "stubborn" and inflexible thesis than the Serbian one, it proposes just one solution: an independent and sovereign Kosovo. And it seems that the Albanians have international support. It is known that several European and American politicians estimate that at the end Kosovo will be an independent State. International Balkan Commission, also known as the Amato Commission, for its chairman is Giuliano Amato, the former Prime Minister of Italy, in its report entitled "The Balkans in the Future of Europe", clearly argued that only the independence can resolve the Kosovo problem. The International Crisis Group Director, James Layon stated:

"The international community made up its mind for the independence of Kosovo and the only problem is to choose the perfect time to proclaim it".

Impact of an eventual independence of Kosovo in the Balkans

Kosovan leader, Ibrahim Rugova

The leader of Albania, Ibrahim Rugova defends the idea that the independence of Kosovo would bring only peace and political stability in the Balkans:

"The independence of Kosovo will contribute to the relaxation of the region.

First of all Kosovo itself, then Macedonia, where many Albanians live, Albania and Serbia-Montenegro will have stability. The independence of Kosovo will bring then a stable peace to the Balkans".

The statement of the Albanian leader must be considered as a proposition of "unilateral stability" in the Balkans - that means, a peace mainly favourable to the Albanians. That is why there is no reason to wonder why Albania supports Rugova and the independence of Kosovo. Official visit of the former Albanian Prime Minister, Fatos Nano to Pristina in March 2004 was actually a sign of the new Albanian State policy towards Kosovo. Albania will indeed support the establishment of a second sovereign and independent Albanian State in the Balkans in order to form a kind of political shield against the Slav hegemony in this region.

It seems that every power begins to choose its camp. Visits of officials give some clues of what inclination these powers will adopt in the future.

The official visit of the former Albanian Premier to Kosovo is mentioned above. Another very significant visit was that of

Serbian President, Boris Tadic

Boris Tadic, the Serbian President, to Russia last week. Those two visits concretise the two major but yet opposite paths that the other powers will

follow: the path that leads to the independence of Kosovo, and the other one - "more than an autonomy, less than an independence".

Traditional influence of Russia over the Balkans is well known from history.

However, after the collapse of Yugoslavia, the Kremlin lost an important ground to exercise its influence. Therefore, it may be argued that Russia will not be willing to face another prestige loss with the independence of Kosovo. This explains Moscow's support of Belgrade administration. During his visit, the Serbian President, proposing the division of Kosovo between the Albanian majority and the Serbian minority, declared, however, that Kosovo should not be separated from Serbia-Montenegro.

On the other hand, the Chechen problem in mind, one can also argue that Russia has its own interests and anxieties over eventual independence of Kosovo. As a matter of fact, Russia will be very annoyed with this independence, which may be a precedent for some problematic ethnic minorities living on Russian soil.

Turkey and China, for similar reasons, are not very keen to approve Kosovo's independence. For China, its claims over Xinjiang (East Turkistan) are at stake. As for Turkey, the Cypriot and the Kurdish issues may be affected from this event. Turkey is more involved in the Kosovo affaire than China is, for not only this country is very close to this troubled area, but also there is the Turkish minority living in Priznen (city in the south of

Kosovo) and in the nearby places, and the Kosovan refugees living in Turkey.

Another State, which is as anxious as Russia, Turkey and China, is Macedonia. Skopje administration is worried that the independence of Kosovo may trigger the separatist movement of the Albanians living mainly in the western part of the country. Eventual collapse of Macedonia may cause a major anarchy in the Balkans, for this event would be seen as an alarum for the "Greater Albania" project, which consists in uniting all the Albanians under the same political entity.

Finally, the establishment of an independent Kosovan State in the Balkans may also provoke the Serbians to claim the Serbian part in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Although, it may seem as a conspiracy theory, one should not forget that since 1990, Serbia suffers from a systematic loss of territories and prestige. Furthermore, Kosovo, with its 60 billion tons of coal reserves, is the unique energy centre of Serbia-Montenegro. History has proved many times to what catastrophes the "Balkan reality" may lead the whole world. So, another Sarajevo catastrophe, similar to that of 1914 and 1990, should be taken into account.

In the other camp, which supports the independence of Kosovo, there are two major political powers: the United States and the European Union. With this independence, the USA plans to pierce the Slav bloc in the Eastern Europe, and the Russian hegemony on the Adriatic coasts. This will be a great strategic gain for Washington on its path to the Middle East. In this regard, it is highly significant that the American Army built up a huge military base in Kosovo.

As for the EU, it supports the independence for reasons of security along its Eastern frontiers. However, Brussels should also determine what to do with this new Kosovan State. Once made, the choice will trace the real course of the EU: the empire, or the enlargement.

A new challenge for the EU?

According to the Amato Commission, the choice for the EU should not be a hard one: "As the European Union, we shall either keep maintaining our de facto colonies in our backyard, the Balkans, or help them accomplish the conditions, which will make them members of the Union". Thus, in its special report, the Commission urged the EU to the enlargement towards the Balkans, and to make Kosovo, Albania, and Macedonia members until 2014. Therefore, the Albanians, instead of sacrificing their lives for the improbable Greater Albania project, will reach their aim, namely the cultural unity, under the EU roof.

Commission suggests a many-phased transition period until 2014, beginning with "the full independence without sovereignty phase", when the international community will be in charge of protection of minorities and human rights, and then the "guided sovereignty phase", when the membership negotiations will start between Kosovo and the EU, and finally the "common sovereignty phase" like in Slovenia, Poland and the United Kingdom.

According to Bilgin Celik, the Turkish faculty member from Dokuz Eylul University, this will be a "member-State building process", rather than a "State building process". Consequently, Kosovo will never be acquainted with the notion of "national independence", as defined in the 19th century in Europe.

This is a great challenge for Brussels. However, can the EU actually face such a challenge at this moment?

Actually the EU passes through a rather critical transition period. The French and the Dutch recent rejection of the European Constitution still has a heavy impact on the future of the Union itself. The question is whether the Union, which had hard to "digest" the new ten member States, and now envisages welcoming Bulgaria, Romania, and even Turkey, is able to face the "Balkan reality" - the traditional bone of contention throughout the history.

Having accepted the Greek part of Cyprus as a new member-State, the Union has already a serious political challenge ahead. In fact, the Europeans, who took over the solution of the chronic Cyprus problem from the UN, now continue to wait for the new Annan Plan. If it is remembered that Cyprus issue had become a serious international problem only since 1950s, it would be a rather perilous enterprise for the EU to defy the Balkan problems, which go back as early as to the beginning of the 19th century.

TRIBUNE DE GENEVE (SWITZERLAND)

26 novembre 2005 21:46

International community cannot cut and run from Kosovo: UN envoy

PODGORICA, Serbia-Montenegro, Nov 26 (AFP)

The international community will be required to maintain a presence in Kosovo no matter what the outcome of talks on the province's future status, a UN envoy said Saturday.

Whether it gains independence for its ethnic Albanian majority or remains part of Serbia, the UN-administered province will continue to need international assistance in the years ahead, Martti Ahtisaari said.

"Whatever the status is going to be I think we all recognise that there is going to be a presence of the international community in Kosovo for quite some time from now," he told a press conference here.

Ahtisaari, the UN's point man for the difficult talks between Serbian and Kosovo Albanian negotiators, was speaking after meeting Montenegrin leaders including President Filip Vujanovic and Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic.

Montenegro is tied in a loose union with its larger sister republic Serbia, an arrangement that forms the last vestige of the Yugoslav federation that collapsed in a series of inter-ethnic wars in the 1990s.

The 1998-1999 Kosovo conflict between separatist ethnic Albanian guerrillas and Serbian security forces under then Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic cost some 10,000 lives.

It ended with a NATO bombing campaign to force the withdrawal of Serbian troops and allow the establishment of a UN administration in the province, which remains technically part of Serbia.

Ahtisaari said UN-set standards of democracy, particularly the protection of ethnic minorities such as Serbs, had to be achieved for the talks to succeed.

Kosovo's Serbs complain that since the arrival of NATO peacekeepers they have been the targets of constant harassment and violence from the ethnic Albanian majority.

"In order to make progress in these talks it is important to make progress on the standards and that is why so many actions by the Kosovo Albanians are needed, but also the cooperation of the minority groups including Serbs," he said.

Ahtisaari praised the consultative role of the Albanian government in the talks.

"I think it's very appropriate the role the Albanian government has played, I am very pleased about that," he said.

"The Albanian government is active but not an actor and that gives a good chance for me to consult with the government on the basic situation and how they expect us to proceed".

Ahtisaari is on his first trip to the region, which has already involved talks with top Serbian and Kosovo officials.

On Wednesday the UN envoy, appointed to head the talks earlier this month, ruled out a time limit for the negotiations and said it was too early to begin face-to-face discussions between the opposing camps.

Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leadership demands unconditional independence but Belgrade insists the province is an inalienable part of Serbian territory and culture.