Kosovo after the vote / Serb boycott and consequences

Beta Week, October 28

The massive boycott of the Serb voters in the Oct. 23 general election in Kosovo could complicate the political situation in the province and talks on Kosovo's final status. The international community expected precisely those elected in the last polls to play an important role in the talks supposed to solve the Kosovo crisis. Slightly over 1,000 Serbs visited the polls -- less than one percent of registered voters.

This has questioned the legitimacy of Serb representatives who gained support. At this point, it is still unclear who will represent Kosovo Serbs in the talks. The parties that advocated the boycott have interpreted the massive abstention of Serb voters as a sing of support to the Serbian government plan adopted earlier.

The document calls for an institutional framework that would define the position of Kosovo Serbs, which is actually a reference to broader autonomous areas, in which the Serbs would make up a majority and exercise self-government. The concept was rejected by Kosovo Albanians and the international community alike, and it is very hard to believe that the boycott could have been an efficient leverage for Belgrade to push the plan through. The advocates of the boycott also tend to interpret the extremely low turnout as a collapse of the policy pursued by Serbian President Boris Tadic, who had appealed to the Serbs to go to the polls and pressed for closer cooperation with the international community.

This, however, is just a part of the anti-Tadic campaign, the underlying reason for the disappointing turnout being the extremely difficult position of Serbs -- not even the four years of Serb representation in the Kosovo Assembly made their lives any better. Accordingly, they see the Serbian government plan as a genuine solution for their problems. Since the government and the premier continued their support to the new strategy, local Serbs believe, quite naturally, that the plan was the best solution indeed.

Government
The leaders of radical factions in Kosovo, who spearheaded a fervent anti-election campaign, feel triumphant, and plan to be a party to talks in the future. They made it very clear that they do not see elected Serbs as legitimate representatives of the people, inviting the international community to turn to the "legitimate" Serb representatives instead. However, the election boycott cannot be treated as a vote for some other political representatives, but rather the expression of their political stance. Therefore it is hard to expect that the international community would accept a Serb negotiating team including the radical supporters of the election boycott.

Representatives of the Serb Ticket for Kosovo and Metohija, which was put together after Tadic's call for elections, do not know how to act in the new situation. Aware that their legitimacy is only formal, due to the meagre voter support they have gained, they do not want to decide on their own whether to enter the Assembly or not. The first on the list, Oliver Ivanovic, said earlier this week that the decision should be made by the Serbian government, which had promoted the idea of the boycott in the first place. "The Serbian government is the key factor. It must explain why it asked for the election to be boycotted, and so actively at that. If they cannot work out their next move, I think they must bear the consequences," Ivanovic said. However, regardless of what the people on Ivanovic's ticket might come up with, the Assembly will be multiethnic, including not only Albanians, Roma, Bosniac’s, Turks and other Kosovo minorities, but the Serbs as well. Namely, the other Serb ticket, the Civic Initiative of Kosovo, said it would send to the Kosovo Assembly as many representatives as it can get after the ballots are counted. They will pay no attention to the fact to the Serb turnout was so low. In a word, the international community and Kosovo Albanians will always have Serb representatives legitimate enough for any talks on the future of Kosovo. Whether they will be truly accepted or not depends on the political judgment.

UNMIK
The massive Serb boycott has shaken the international administration in Kosovo, which is also most responsible for the general situation in the province. This is also the first major failure by the U.N. mission under Sřren Jessen- Petersen, who didn't hide his disappointment. The Danish diplomat accused Belgrade representatives of undermining the effort to create a multiethnic democracy in Kosovo. "It is crystal clear that the citizens are not the first and foremost interest of too many people in Belgrade," adding that certain Serbian officials "live in the past." The UNMIK chief reiterated that living conditions for the Kosovo Serbs require "dramatic improvements," before the talks on the status of Kosovo can begin.

However, the international community is no longer as insistent as it used to be that there are standards that must be met before the final status talks are launched. The standards should be reviewed in mid-2005, and initial talks on the status might begin shortly afterward. The international community also wants a direct dialog between Pristina and Belgrade to resume. State Secretary at the British Foreign Office Dennis McShane said earlier this week that the European Union strategy will imply not only the established policy of meeting the standards, but also interdependence as a norm for the European future of Kosovo. McShane didn't explain the term "interdependence" in detail, but it is clear that an independent Kosovo cannot be proclaimed by the Albanian majority only, and that other solutions should be sought.

Assembly
Kosovo Albanian parties are well ahead in their preparations for the inauguration of the new government, largely ignoring the Serb boycott. No party can form a majority, meaning that coalitions will be a necessity. The order of parties mainly mirrors the current makeup of the Assembly. Ibrahim Rugova's Democratic Alliance of Kosovo is the first, followed by Hashim Thaçi's Democratic Party of Kosovo and Ramush Hajradinaj's Alliance for the Future of Kosovo. In the former assembly, Serbs composed the second largest caucus with 22 seats. This time, however, they can expect not more than ten seats. One of the results of their boycott will be the fact that Albanians will have more seats in the legislative body. Rugova's party is well ahead all others, with as many as 45 seats. The Democratic Party of Kosovo has 28, and Hajradinaj's Alliance -- eight. Veton Surroi's Civic Initiative Ora will also be represented in the Assembly after winning six percent of the vote. The leaders of the four parties said all options were open, including a broad coalition. Rugova said that Kosovo institutions would be installed shortly after the official election results were announced. Rugova says the Democratic Alliance will select "potential partners" in the next "few days," while Thaiç's Democratic Party of Kosovo advocates "a comprehensive and multiethnic government." Haradinaj, who some sources say might face an indictment by the Hague Tribunal for crimes committed during the war in Kosovo, said that it was high time Kosovo obtained opposition. What he wanted to say was that his party would probably refuse to join the government. In fact, Haradinaj has no choice, since his popularity has dwindled, and the Democratic Alliance, whose influence is growing, can make a cabinet with only one coalition partner.